Tariff war! In order to grab the cargo, the shipping company reduced the price of the West American route
Date：2025-01-08 08:46:00 View：
Shanghai's export container freight index rose for six weeks, and the United States line was affected by labor negotiations.
On January 3, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose 44.83 points to 2505.17 points, a weekly increase of 1.82%, which has shown a rising trend for six consecutive weeks. The rise was mainly driven by the US line, the US East and US West freight rose 5.66% and 9.1%, respectively.
The United States East Terminal labor negotiations entered a critical period, is expected to return to the negotiating table on the 7th. The result of this negotiation has attracted much attention and become a key vane for observing the trend of freight rates of the US line.
After experiencing the New Year's Day price surge, some shipping companies in order to seize market share, have introduced preferential measures, some provide a discount of 400-500 US dollars, and even some shipping companies directly inform large customers to reduce the freight rate of 800 US dollars per large box.
In early 2025, container rates clearly reflected anxiety over terminal negotiations in North America, with Far East to North America rates rising while Far East to Europe and the Mediterranean rates falling.
Negotiations between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Union (USMX), which represents the management, on automation issues have been in limbo, raising the specter of a strike at the East American terminal. Further increases are likely as the date of negotiations approaches.
If the negotiation is successful, the strike factor will be removed, and the market freight rate will resume to reflect the change of supply and demand; If the negotiations do not go well, the strike from January 15 will cause serious delays and have a significant impact on the maritime market.
Shipping giants Evergreen, Yangming and Wanhai all believe that 2025 will be full of variables and challenges for the global container transportation industry. Faced with this prospect, they are closely watching the progress of the negotiations between the dockworkers in the US East, which has entered the countdown phase. In order to mitigate the impact of a potential strike on customers, the three companies have begun to adjust ship speed and berthing plans to ensure supply chain stability.
At the same time, as the end of the year approaches, the freight forwarding market has also ushered in a new round of adjustment. As factories closed and shipments dwindled, shipping companies began to compete on price for flights during the long Lunar New Year holiday to stock up on cargoes.
With the approaching of the Spring Festival, stock prices are expected to continue to fall, and shipping companies will also reduce capacity supply by reducing flights, so as to support prices.
Although freight rates on American routes have risen against the trend, their price increases have not been fully realized as shipping companies have hoarded cargo and made profits.
However, the potential risk of strikes in the East of the United States has provided some support for freight rates, especially the higher freight rates on the West of the United States, which mainly benefits from the transfer effect of cargo from the East of the United States to the West of the United States. It is reported that the United States and East labor and management are expected to return to the negotiating table in the near future, and this progress will determine whether the increase in freight rates of the United States can be sustained.
Negotiations between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Union (USMX), which represents the management, on automation issues have been in limbo, raising the specter of a strike at the East American terminal. Further increases are likely as the date of negotiations approaches. If the negotiation is successful, the strike factor will be removed, and the market freight rate will resume to reflect the change of supply and demand; If the negotiations do not go well, the strike from January 15 will cause serious delays and have a significant impact on the maritime market.
The shipping company has notified that the annual stock price period is limited to 14 days, closely related to the final negotiation deadline of the new annual contract between labor and capital of the United States East Terminal. Once a strike or work stoppage is confirmed, major shipping lines will face various port congestion surcharges on their U.S. / Canadian imports and exports. On the contrary, if the labor negotiations in the United States and the East end peacefully, the United States may still have room to reduce the freight rate before the year.
However, the container shipping market again experienced significant price fluctuations in just two days after the large ship companies sharply increased their prices on the 1st. Some shipping companies, in order to attract those who are not eager to ship exports in the Lunar New Year, announced on the evening of the 2nd to offer a discount of 400-500 US dollars from the 3rd, which is the so-called "stock price" and "stock price" during the Spring Festival.
However, near the end of the day, a heavyweight shipping company was dissatisfied with the ratio of the long contract price and spot price provided by other shipping companies to customers, resulting in the actual freight rate of only about $5,000, so it decided to inform its large customers that the freight rate of each large box was directly reduced by $800.
Senior executives of large shipping companies revealed that they had received the news of steep price cuts from members of the OA Ocean Alliance on the evening of the 2nd. At present, shipping is in the off-season, the volume of goods is not sufficient, and there is no large number of goods to avoid customs duties.
One shipping company had predicted a $1, 500 increase in the West-America freight rate by reducing the number of sailings and reducing the supply of capacity caused by a ship accident in Yangming. However, because THE members of THE alliance to which Yang Ming belongs did not fully follow the increase, the ships of the Alliance were full, while the ships of the OA Alliance were not full, which triggered the temporary sharp price reduction.
Looking ahead to 2025, the overall capacity oversupply gap is likely to converge, and port handling costs will also be high. Long contract rates are expected to be higher than 2024, but will not be officially determined until March or April. At the same time, the Sino-US trade war continues to affect the layout of manufacturers, and the displacement of goods will continue. Geopolitics and the risk of strikes in the East of the United States also add to the operational variables, and shippers need to pay close attention to market changes.
