The peak season is not prosperous, and the freight rates on the US route have significantly decreased. Shipping companies have initiated capacity adjustments
Date：2025-07-25 10:39:00 View：
Entering the third quarter of the traditional sea freight peak season, the international logistics market is showing the characteristic of "not thriving during the peak season". The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has been declining for six consecutive weeks, with US freight rates falling significantly from their previous highs. The changes in market supply and demand have triggered strategic adjustments in route capacity by major shipping companies.
Compared with the same period in previous years, the activity of the shipping market at the beginning of the third quarter of this year was lower than expected. This trend is intuitively reflected in the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange. The index recently closed at 1646.90 points, down 5.0% from the previous week and has achieved six consecutive weeks of decline.
01. Deep retracement of US freight rates
The current market freight rate for the US West route is approximately $1700-1800/FEU (40 foot standard container). Compared to the high point of about $6000/FEU reached in early June this year, the cumulative decline has exceeded 70%.
The US East Coast route: Freight rates have fallen from a high of nearly $7000/FEU in early June to the current range of $3300-3800/FEU, a decrease of about 50%.
Faced with sustained downward pressure on freight rates and lower than expected cargo volume growth, major shipping companies have begun to take measures to cope:
Mediterranean Shipping (MSC) notified customers on July 11th that it has decided to suspend its PERAL route services and optimize and adjust its route network from Asia to the West of the United States.
CU Lines immediately announced that it would temporarily suspend the original plan to restart the US West Coast route.
Market analysis suggests that if freight rates continue to fall under pressure, it is expected that more shipping companies may follow suit and prioritize withdrawing some temporary capacity (overtime ships) deployed to cope with the expected peak season. Further adjustments to the subsequent route network and capacity configuration will depend on the actual market recovery situation, which remains to be observed.
02.market analysis
The industry generally believes that the core driving factor behind this round of freight rate correction is the short-term imbalance between market supply and demand.
Pre shipment concentration: Some exporters choose to concentrate their shipments in the early stage due to concerns about future freight rates, cabin space, or supply chains.
Increased capacity deployment: Shipping companies have correspondingly increased their capacity supply based on expectations of traditional peak season demand.
Insufficient actual cargo volume: After entering the third quarter, the actual cargo volume growth was significantly lower than the capacity level invested by shipping companies, resulting in a situation of oversupply in the market and thus exerting downward pressure on freight rates.
The current phenomenon of "sluggish peak season" in the shipping market highlights the volatility of the global trade environment and supply chain. The significant drop in freight rates and the adjustment of shipping capacity by shipping companies are the immediate response of the market to changes in supply and demand. All parties involved need to closely monitor and flexibly adjust their strategies according to the actual market trends to cope with potential challenges and opportunities in the third quarter. The subsequent development of the market and further measures taken by shipping companies are worthy of continuous observation.